From the Desk of Danielle Davenport, Accredited Land Consultant | Davenport Real Estate Group
Interest rates, inventory and median prices dominate the real estate headlines. But sometimes the most interesting clues about where the market is heading show up somewhere else entirely.
In the years leading up to the 2008 housing crash, an interesting number was quietly climbing.
It wasn’t mortgage rates. It wasn’t inventory. It was the number of people getting into real estate.
Membership in the National Association of REALTORS® surged during the housing boom of the early and mid-2000s, climbing from fewer than 800,000 members at the beginning of the decade to well over 1.2 million by 2006. Membership remained extremely elevated as the housing market began to turn.
The pattern is interesting because of what it may tell us about market psychology.
When selling real estate looks like easy money, more people are attracted to the profession. By the time licensing classes are filling up and participation has surged, however, some of the easiest opportunities may already have passed.
And yes, I recognize the irony of a real estate professional pointing this out.
But this is not really about REALTOR® membership. It is about leading versus lagging indicators.
Most people follow the same housing statistics: mortgage rates, inventory, median prices, closed sales and days on market. Those numbers matter enormously, but many of them describe decisions that have already occurred.
Sometimes the clues about what comes next appear somewhere else.
The Coffee Shop That Knew First
One of the more famous examples came from Zillow.
In Zillow Talk, Spencer Rascoff and Stan Humphries examined home values near Starbucks locations. Zillow subsequently analyzed 20 major metropolitan areas and found that homes near Starbucks generally appreciated more than homes across the surrounding metro between 1997 and 2013.
That doesn’t mean Starbucks causes property values to rise. The more interesting explanation is what happens before a company commits to a location.
Major retailers invest heavily in site selection. They analyze demographics, household income, traffic patterns, development activity and consumer behavior before signing a lease or purchasing a site.
A new store can therefore represent something more than another place to buy coffee. It may be evidence that a sophisticated company has already made a substantial financial bet on a neighborhood’s future.
For property owners and investors, that is worth noticing.
Follow the Moving Trucks
Another unconventional indicator is sitting on America’s highways.
U-Haul’s Growth Index analyzes millions of one-way moving transactions and compares where customers pick up equipment with where they return it.
For 2025 alone, the company says its index was based on more than 2.5 million one-way transactions across the United States and Canada. U-Haul itself cautions that the rankings should not be treated as a direct measure of population or economic growth, but they can provide a useful real-time window into migration patterns.
Why does that matter to real estate? Because housing demand ultimately follows households.
When people consistently move into a market, they need somewhere to live. Over time, that can influence rents, home prices, new construction, retail demand and land values.
Migration data won’t tell you exactly what a property will be worth next year. But it can reveal where demand may be building before it becomes obvious in traditional housing statistics.
What the Paint Aisle Knows
Home improvement spending offers another window into housing behavior.
When people buy homes, they frequently spend money afterward—on flooring, appliances, kitchens, landscaping, repairs and improvements.
When transaction volume slows, some of that activity can slow with it. But there is another side to the story.
When homeowners are reluctant to sell because replacing a low-rate mortgage would mean taking on a significantly higher payment, they may decide to improve the property they already own instead.
That means renovation activity can tell us something about both housing turnover and homeowner confidence.
The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies actually tracks this through its Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, or LIRA. The indicator uses multiple economic inputs—including existing-home sales, housing starts, home prices and building-material sales—to project changes in remodeling and repair spending roughly four quarters ahead.
As of July 2026, Harvard’s LIRA was projecting continued slowing in renovation and repair spending growth through mid-2027. That doesn’t predict housing prices. But it adds another piece to the larger economic picture.
The Tallest Building Curse
Then there is one of the strangest indicators of all.
In 1999, economist Andrew Lawrence proposed what became known as the Skyscraper Index.
He observed that record-breaking skyscraper projects had repeatedly appeared around major periods of financial stress. Later research described the pattern as record-setting projects often being announced or started during the later stages of an economic boom, when credit is plentiful and confidence is high.
The Empire State Building opened during the Great Depression. The Petronas Towers were completed around the Asian financial crisis.
Is a skyscraper a reliable economic forecasting tool? Certainly not.
But the underlying idea is more interesting than the coincidence.
Extremely ambitious projects require capital, confidence and expectations about future demand. When investors become willing to make increasingly aggressive long-term bets, that can tell us something about where we are in a cycle.
Lumber, Moving Boxes and the Supply Chain
Some signals appear even further upstream. Builders order lumber before homes are completed.
Moving boxes are purchased before households settle into new neighborhoods.
Contractors book electricians, plumbers, roofers and other trades before renovation spending appears in broader economic reports.
Even something as simple as how long it takes to schedule a contractor or rent construction equipment can provide a street-level view of demand.
No single observation tells you where the market is heading. But collectively, they can help reveal changes in activity before those changes appear in headline statistics.
The Biggest Housing Indicator May Be Life Itself
Underneath every housing cycle are millions of individual decisions.
People get married.
Families have children.
Couples divorce.
Children leave home.
Parents retire.
Jobs relocate.
People inherit property.
Older owners downsize.
These events create housing demand regardless of what economists are forecasting.
That is why I also pay attention to indicators such as school enrollment, household formation, migration and demographic changes. Real estate ultimately follows people.
What These Signals Mean for Property Owners
None of these indicators is a crystal ball.
Correlation is not causation, and some famous market indicators may survive partly because they make memorable stories.
One unusual signal deserves skepticism.
But when multiple independent signals begin pointing in the same direction, they deserve attention. This is where market analysis becomes more useful than simply looking at last month’s median sales price.
For an investor, it might mean identifying an emerging market before institutional capital fully arrives.
For a landowner, it might mean recognizing changes in development pressure, infrastructure investment or buyer demand.
For a homeowner, it could mean understanding whether neighborhood fundamentals are strengthening even when headline housing statistics appear flat. And for someone managing several properties, these signals can help answer a much larger question:
Is your real estate positioned for where the market is going—or where it has already been?
Market Insight: Watch Decisions Before You Watch Statistics
The most valuable signals often come from people and companies putting actual money at risk.
A retailer signing a 10-year lease, a family loading a moving truck, a developer buying lumber, a homeowner committing to a major renovation, or a company acquiring land for its next location.
Those decisions happen before many official statistics are published.
That is why I don’t rely on any single number when evaluating a property or market. I look at the broader picture—capital flows, migration, development activity, demographics, local demand and the behavior occurring underneath the headline statistics.
The Market Leaves Clues. The Question Is Whether You’re Watching Them.
If you own a home, land, commercial property or investment real estate and are trying to understand what today’s market signals could mean for your property, the answer rarely comes from one statistic.
Davenport Real Estate Group can help you look beyond the headlines and evaluate your property within the larger market—where demand is moving, what buyers are responding to, and how those changes may affect your real estate strategy.
Contact Davenport Real Estate Group to discuss your property, portfolio or long-term real estate strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can unusual indicators really predict a housing crash?
No single indicator can reliably predict a housing crash. REALTOR® membership, migration patterns, retail expansion, remodeling activity and construction trends are better viewed as pieces of a much larger market picture. They become more useful when several independent indicators begin showing similar changes.
Is rising REALTOR® membership a sign that the housing market is about to decline?
Not necessarily. Rising membership can accompany a strong real estate market because more people are attracted to the industry when transaction volume and earning opportunities are high. Historical patterns can be interesting, but membership alone should not be treated as a market-timing tool.
Does having a Starbucks nearby increase a home’s value?
The research shows correlation rather than proof of causation. Zillow found that homes near Starbucks generally experienced stronger appreciation in the markets it studied, but many other factors—including location, demographics, investment and neighborhood improvement—can influence property values.
Why are moving-truck rentals useful for analyzing real estate markets?
One-way moving activity can provide an early look at where households are relocating. U-Haul’s Growth Index, for example, analyzes millions of one-way customer transactions to measure net gains and losses among states, metros and cities. The company cautions that the index does not directly measure population or economic growth.
What is the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity?
The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, or LIRA, is produced by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. It provides a short-term outlook for national home improvement and repair spending and is designed to help identify potential turning points in remodeling activity.
What are the most important housing market indicators to watch?
Traditional indicators such as inventory, mortgage rates, sales volume, median prices and days on market remain important. They can be supplemented with migration, construction activity, household formation, development pipelines, remodeling activity and local business investment to create a more complete picture.
What should property owners watch in their own neighborhood?
Look beyond recent sales. New commercial tenants, major infrastructure projects, school enrollment, building permits, redevelopment activity, employer expansion or contraction, new construction and changes in inventory can all provide useful context about how a local market is evolving.
How can these indicators help real estate investors?
Alternative indicators can help investors identify changes in demand, migration and development activity that may not yet be fully reflected in historical sales data. They should be evaluated alongside property fundamentals, cash flow, zoning, financing conditions and long-term investment objectives.
